Webinar: Using causal inference to disentangle forest disturbance interactions under climate change

18 February 2025, 6.00 pm CET / 5.00 pm UTC

Speaker: Dr. Joan Dudney
Joan is an assistant professor at UC Santa Barbara in the Bren School and the Environmental Studies Program. She is broadly interested in understanding the causes and consequences of global change impacts on forests and terrestrial ecosystems. She leverages big data and field-based insights from her long-term research in the Sierra Nevada to understand tree mortality and ecosystem shifts. Before arriving at UCSB, she completed her PhD from UC Berkeley and a David H. Smith Postdoctoral Fellowship at UC Davis.

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Interactions among forest disturbances are leading to unprecedented mortality and forest transitions. Despite their global impacts, the relationships among these disturbances—and their response to rising temperatures—are not well understood. Using insights from causal inference and existing research, we present a typology of disturbance interactions. We clarify the distinction between interactions and statistical interaction effects, explore how climate change can amplify or dampen these effects, and discuss the challenges posed by nonlinear effects and feedbacks. Our findings underscore that climate change will have transformative impacts on forest disturbance interactions worldwide.